Why the IEA's Cobalt Outlook Points to KCR

The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 paints a bullish outlook for cobalt — and makes clear how quickly policy changes by major producers can reshape the global supply outlook.

The IEA’s conclusion is unambiguous: the bottleneck is not the resource. It is the refinery.

The DRC's export quota system, introduced in late 2025, drove cobalt prices up around 130% between January 2025 and April 2026. The IEA identifies cobalt among the materials most exposed to supply vulnerabilities — high concentration, limited substitution, and surging demand across aerospace, defence, and premium EV batteries.

The report is explicit on refining: investment remains concentrated in upstream projects, while downstream processing capacity continues to lag.

That is the gap Cobalt Blue is building to fill. The Kwinana Cobalt Refinery — Australia's first dedicated cobalt refinery — will produce battery-grade cobalt sulphate for the lithium-ion battery industry and cobalt metal for defence and superalloy applications, underpinned by patented processing technology developed right here in Australia.